Severe Threat Mid-End of Week

Dustin Wilcox · #1 06-03-2007, 06:28 AM

I thought I would go ahead and start this thread, I am sure it will need to be split and renamed as events near.* Currently it looks like at least a couple (likely more) chase days will come out of the middle to end of next week.* Currently Wed looks the best across areas of the C Plains but will many models runs between now and the event I am sure many things will flip flop, so getting into detail with minor details this far out while fun is not real practical, however I am monitoring the setup closely as I may leave Wednesday and chase until things quiet down.* For the next few days I will try and keep and detailed forecast updated on my site under the Chase Forecast link.

#2 06-03-2007, 06:30 AM

Hey Dustin, do you know what the main threat will be from this severe event? SPC does not mention much at this point.

Dustin Wilcox · #3 06-03-2007, 06:42 AM

The SPC has and will most likely remain quite conservative while discussing next week.* I am sure A couple of issues need to be worked out before they jump on the bandwagon, first of all the first wave of many is still near 100hrs out so much can and will change regarding location and magnitude, secondly it appears some form of a cap will be in place with all models forecasting unfavorably warm air aloft, however personally I feel with the upper level support forecast combined with the instability forecast even a stout cap should be overcome and while I hate to get to ahead of myself I am fairly confident in saying some where in the plains will have a decent shot as tornadic supercells anywhere in the WED-SAT time frame.

NWIASpotter · #4 06-03-2007, 07:56 AM

I will be out chasing this event for as long as it poses a tornadic threat, for the first time ever I'll follow a system from its' beginning in western plains all the way through the plain states.* I'll be posting daily updates/results/forecasts on my blog page...

This system definitely is looking good, with the GFS finally getting on board to a good solution and is trying to stick to it fairly well.* Tonights' run of the GFS is one that is absolutely to die for, setting up huge tornadic potential over areas of central NE and possibly KS as well.* Either way, expect this system to post at least 2 days if not more of tornadic and potentially significant severe weather.

Dustin Wilcox · #5 06-03-2007, 05:10 PM

The models are really begining to hit hard on the threat for severe weather, I am going to begin directing my focus to Wed, even though the days following will also hold potential.* The GFS has maintained relativly consistent for a couple days now, and has begun to really hit the severe weather threat hard, with a trpl point setting up in the NCNTRL NE or SCNTRL SD area and crazy parameters along the WF and DL, with 5000+j/kg CAPES and EHI's reaching 14* at 0-1km not 0-3km* :coolsmiley:, 50-60kt 500mb flow and an increasing slightly backed 40+kt 850mb wind, allowing for excellent speed and directional shear.* I noted these crazy parameters on last nights 0Z GFS, not getting to excited until this morning when the ETA progged a very similar solution, If last nights AND this mornings runs were to verify I would expect a high risk for areas of NE/SD.* Please keep in mind a couple of things however 1) There is a VERY stout cap with extrmely warm air from 850mb on up so Capping could be curveball that will have to be monitored.* 2) the event is still 4 days out even with the recent model consistency the location and magnitude of the system will change, regardless I think its pretty set in stone if the cap can be overcome there will be a decent setup in the plains on WED.

pman · #6 06-04-2007, 04:33 AM

I would be out spotting for this one, but FROPA looks to be about 2am thurs morning here, so I'm not crazy about being out in the dark.* Either way, 0z NAM develops a very strong squall line wed nite into thurs across northern IA and MN. Decent chasing earlier in the day farther west, near Sioux Falls.*

I just have to say that the sub 972mb low the 0z NAM develops over northwest MN is one of the craziest things I've ever seen.* I mean, a low that deep in the middle of the continent in June?* It's nuts if it actually verifies...

dean · #7 06-04-2007, 12:40 PM

SPC has issued a MOD risk for the Day 3 outlook, which means it is very possible that might be upgraded to a HIGH risk by Wednesday.* i wont be able to chase it due to school, but definately looks like a good setup to chase!!

Josh Richardson · #8 06-04-2007, 05:51 PM

Im not passing this one up and have taken the day off already. Very early target but for now its between O'Neill and Yankton. Now the decision to make is who Im going with, I need to see if Kenny is ready to go for this and if not Craig M. and I will be teaming up and leaving Tue night

murf · #9 06-04-2007, 06:01 PM

I can't pass this one up, either, so I've already taken the day off.* (if I don't then I KNOW I will miss out on a big show)* :)

I have to take the wife up to Omaha for an appointment that ends around 1:00 that day, so I will be pulling for that target area to stay in the NE Nebraska area (or at least somewhere within a couple hours of Omaha) so we can make it there by the time things pop.*
I am impressed by the very strong wording by SPC this far out, I just hope the forecasted 70-75 dewpoints do verify and that the cap won't ruin the day.

Josh Richardson · #10 06-04-2007, 07:13 PM

Ok, we have planned for sure now. Craig Maire, Kenny Grimm and I will be leaving for the target area Tue. evening to leave us plenty of time for Wed. Probably end up a little further west than initially anticipated just due to models being a little fast on the system. Make sure you if your not already out chasing to watch us on the live storm cam at iowastorms.com.