March 25, 2007 DISC.

dean · #1 03-23-2007, 07:12 PM

thought i would open a thread to talk about the upcoming event since i know atleast a few of us will be out. Anyways, here's the graphicast for MSP:

dean · #2 03-23-2007, 08:22 PM

Even though they dont mention tornadoes, this still sounds pretty good for 2 days out.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
* *STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
* *AT LEAST MID 50 DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD INTO THE REGION BY
* *AFTERNOON. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
* *AROUND 7.5 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. WIND
* *FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE
* *AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
* *SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED
* *OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY COOLS AND THE STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO WI
* *...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.

I just took a look at the COD models, and it looks like decent moisture for Iowa and southern Minnesota (atleast for March) and shear also looks pretty good, both directional and speed shear, however, the 500 mb winds are lacking, but only at the 42 hour, the 48 hour looks fine for Iowa and Minnesota. A big vort max out there in eastern South Dakota in the 42 hr, and for southern Minnesota the winds shift from south to southwest from the surface all the way up to the 200 mb level. so it looks pretty good, just waiting for a new run for the WRF.

Josh Richardson · #3 03-23-2007, 09:56 PM

Well I wont get into details just yet but I am targeting a rough area of hopefully NW IA into SW MN.* Looks like most of us should be out on this one, I know this will be Day 2 for Dustin W. as he has the opportunity to chase the day before as well.

Dustin Wilcox · #4 03-24-2007, 12:44 AM

Yep this will be a Marathon Chase for me.* This might be the last you here from me for a while too.* I am going to the Bar here in a while for my 21st then, at 9 tomorrow we're heading out, they're gonna come bang on my door and get me up, I have never had a problem wakening up for a chase but tomorrow could be an issue.* I know I really like the setup and I got a pretty decent source telling me were gonna be chasing some big tubes this weekend* ;D.* Tomorrow we'll be out somewhere along the WF Dryline intersection the triple point.* From there I imagine we'll head toward IA and/or MN for Sunday.* It's sounding like its gonna be Katie, Sean, Ben from the St Louis NWS, Jeff and I.* Here is to a spectacular weekend!!!!* I'll try to update my page or something on the road.

#5 03-24-2007, 04:11 PM

Dustin are you still heading out? Also It looks like WI will be in the greatest threat area so will you still go there?

dean · #6 03-24-2007, 05:51 PM

i definately have to say both speed and directional shear looks good for pretty much all of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.* The SPC has the moderate risk for SE Minnesota, but i dunno about that, i'm starting to like south central Minnesot again because it looks like winds at the 700 mb level might be lacking a little in SE Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but south central looks better. Looks like moisture should be good for the entire area.

Josh Richardson · #7 03-24-2007, 07:17 PM

I would really like it if the threat was a little farther west but since I have been hoping for a chase day tomorrow Im sure I will still chase even if I have to go by myself.* I still need to call Alex today to see if he still wants to go and I am trying to get Mike S. to go as well.* Dean are you and your chase partner meeting up tomorrow and heading out to at least SE MN?*

Alright, Alex is in so now Im just waiting for Mike to get back to me.* Im trying to get everyone together for this one as I think that would be fun.* Let me know if your going to be in the area.

dean · #8 03-24-2007, 07:38 PM

Quote:

I would really like it if the threat was a little farther west but since I have been hoping for a chase day tomorrow Im sure I will still chase even if I have to go by myself.* I still need to call Alex today to see if he still wants to go and I am trying to get Mike S. to go as well.* Dean are you and your chase partner meeting up tomorrow and heading out to at least SE MN?*

Alright, Alex is in so now Im just waiting for Mike to get back to me.* Im trying to get everyone together for this one as I think that would be fun.* Let me know if your going to be in the area.[/b]

yea, looks like we'll be around Rochester or maybe a little west as that is where we personally see the better area (terrain and dynamics, atleast for initiation). Dont know if my partner would be up for meeting up since he doesn't know you guys, but i can ask. :)

dean · #9 03-24-2007, 09:01 PM

looking more and more likely that i will be out tomorrow on my earliest chase ever! anyone else think that this event just kinda came outta nowhere?

Josh Richardson · #10 03-24-2007, 09:03 PM

Quote:

looking more and more likely that i will be out tomorrow on my earliest chase ever! anyone else think that this event just kinda came outta nowhere?[/b]

I wouldnt say it came out of nowhere, I have been waiting for this one all week.