June 21, 2007 SD/NE/IA

Josh Richardson · #1 06-19-2007, 07:48 PM

Interesting setup coming into the picture with a warm front draping across the IA/MN border area with of course plenty of moisture streaming into IA.* Attendant cold front coming into the picture from the west and sparking initiation along the MO river area.* With better capping inversion in place along the WF expect more isolated supercells to form later in the evening across Western and Central IA with Helicity values looking excellent along with LCL's and Sig Tor(per NAM/WRF).* Still a few days out but right now looks like a great tornadic supercell threat across these areas of IA, especially in and around the Fort Dodge area.* Making my more final decision tomorrow but as of now its just a short backyard chase for us on Thursday and could be the most rewarding of the year for us.*

Josh Richardson · #2 06-20-2007, 12:28 PM

Not much of a change except I think the NAM all of a sudden wiped out all low level helicity.* Anyway, Im sure that will be back on the next run, need to watch how far south the boundarys sags now and I may be making a late forecast for Thurs. morning OFBs as well.* Right now starting to think more around the I-80 to Hwy 30 area in W/C IA.

Josh Richardson · #3 06-20-2007, 06:52 PM

Big changes in the morning runs as we should see more of a frontal boundary setup across IA with that being the only focus now.* Anywhere from NW IA into Eastern IA has a nice shot of severe weather.* Including my hometown.* Probably still gonna head out to the NW towards the MN/IA border and make my decision in the morning on this one.

dean · #4 06-20-2007, 07:04 PM

southeastern South Dakota is showing dew points from 64-68 degrees, so i would probably target somewhere around Sioux Falls right now.

pman · #5 06-20-2007, 07:47 PM

I'd target somewhere just southeast of Sioux Falls to get on the south side of any convection that fires.* Interesting though in the new SWODY2 they mentioned a possible upgrade to mod risk and moved the highest probs north as the 12z NAM had the warm front farther north.

Josh Richardson · #6 06-20-2007, 10:02 PM

Still planning on that boundary dropping south around the IA/MN border as that is the closest agreement your going to find between various models.* Not a final target but as of right now planning on heading to around the Spencer IA area.

dean · #7 06-21-2007, 03:42 AM

quite a suprise today, instead of a SD/NE/western MN event like was first thought, it was an eastern MN/WI event, i was stuck at work all night but i managed to take quite a few pics. just gotta figure out how to get them from my phone to the computer.