Forecast- Now Through Labor Day Weekend (midwest)

[dean]

Looks like the chance of severe weather for the midwest from now through Labor Day weekend is:
Jack sh*t. Nada, nothing, zip. Dewpoints staying in the 50's maybe the 60's (but then again i'm looking at the GFS and it has been HORRIBLE at forecasting dewpoints more than a couple days out) so maybe its not as bad as the GFS is making it out to be, but even still, doesnt look like much is going to happen. HOWEVER, i think September may be active again for us, as it looks like Manitoba/Ontario will still have some potential through Labor Day and this potential will continue to move south as we head in to fall, so like last year and 2005, September may hold one or two last chase days for 2007.

Well dang man, that's disappointing. I would had hoped you would had gotten more chase chances and whatnot, but hey at least you have an exciting winter to look forward to, eh?

[dean]

Well dang man, that's disappointing. I would had hoped you would had gotten more chase chances and whatnot, but hey at least you have an exciting winter to look forward to, eh?[/b]

eh, we'll see about winter. still holding out hope the GFS is downplaying a setup this weekend, a cold front coming out of Canada may provide enough lift for a decent setup, but i wont see much until it shows up on the WRF.

[Josh Richardson]

I say bring on winter, Im gonna just pretend the 2007 chase season never happened. Granted I only chased in MN/SD/NE/IA this year but still nada!! Bring on 2008!!

[Dustin Wilcox]

I say bring on winter, Im gonna just pretend the 2007 chase season never happened. Granted I only chased in MN/SD/NE/IA this year but still nada!! Bring on 2008!![/b]

So far 2007 eh, ok, could have been better, I am still hoping for one more solid plains setup, and one more Tornado day, the long range GFS has been consistent in amplifying a W Coast trough and pushing it East towards the end of Next week, however it has been bouncing back and forth between a nasty NEG tilted trough screaming outbreak ripping across the plains, and then the next run it wants to keep the main energy to the North while cutting off over OK and bringing more flooding rains to that area and not much severe weather. Regardless its still 180+ hrs out so its still up in the air, however its becoming more certain that a trough will be present over the W Coast in the 140 hr time frame its evolution is uncertain, but there is the potential!!! But yes I almost wish I could close my eyes and wake up March 1st 2008.

[Josh Richardson]

So far 2007 eh, ok, could have been better, I am still hoping for one more solid plains setup, and one more Tornado day, the long range GFS has been consistent in amplifying a W Coast trough and pushing it East towards the end of Next week, however it has been bouncing back and forth between a nasty NEG tilted trough screaming outbreak ripping across the plains, and then the next run it wants to keep the main energy to the North while cutting off over OK and bringing more flooding rains to that area and not much severe weather. Regardless its still 180+ hrs out so its still up in the air, however its becoming more certain that a trough will be present over the W Coast in the 140 hr time frame its evolution is uncertain, but there is the potential!!! But yes I almost wish I could close my eyes and wake up March 1st 2008.[/b]

LOL, I'll tell ya what if there is something screaming outbreak across the plains I'll chase it other than that Im done with anything long distance this year.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Well the models have been consistent with keeping this trough from really becoming to amplified, both the European which is a little slower and the GFS seem to want to slide the main energy off to the North, I'm still pretty optimistic that at least one decent chase day may materialize towards the end of Next week, even if it is in the Dakotas, just hoping its not Thursday, the only day I can't miss class.

Did you guys catch any of the tornadoes the other day? I saw quite a few tornado warnings in that area...

[Josh Richardson]

Not sure what you mean Dustin, the last decent chase day was the day of the O'Neill and Yankton area supercells. I know I chased and I thought Dustin W. did as well. Maybe your referring to the MCS that came through IA the other day and produced 2 F0's....

[dean]

maybe the ND/MN tornadoes, including the Northwood F4.