Fcst: 9/29 And 9/30

[Josh Richardson]

Starting up this topic in case anyone is planning a late year chase this weekend. I know things have slowed greatly and Sat isnt looking all that great in terms of timing of that wave but Sun is still open. I have kept my option open but have probably been leaning more towards staying home for this one, how bout everyone else?

[pman]

Saturday's definitely out of the question for me, due to it being the night of the homecoming dance, although the 12z NAM would want to have a real nice setup that evening in northeastern SD.

[Josh Richardson]

Saturday's definitely out of the question for me, due to it being the night of the homecoming dance, although the 12z NAM would want to have a real nice setup that evening in northeastern SD.[/b]

Im pretty sure that things will being slowing down enough that you wont have a chance to see any of this until Sunday, hence the SPC Day 3 outlook and the ECMWF.

[pman]

Well yea, I'm pretty sure that we won't get anything sat. evening, esp. with the slower GFS, as convection will likely become a squall line and move through Sunday morning.

Sunday just doesn't look as great as Saturday does, however, in terms of dewpoints, CAPE, etc. Plus the new 0z NAM run worries me about Sunday too, as it has actually sped it up, with FROPA here being very early Sunday morning.

It'll be interesting to see the 0z GFS.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Looking like I will be chasing Saturday although I am not to pumped about it, chasing that area of of the High Plains is rough, roads are very few and far between, and storm motions will be nothing to laugh at tomorow. Thermodynamically the setup does not look all that special, however the further west one gets the less important the high DP's and CAPE's become, there is just to much Wind Shear to ignore tomorow, currently thinking of heading the the Thedford area, although as always subject to change. How about next Tuesday, can someone say E KS!!!

[Josh Richardson]

Looking like I will be chasing Saturday although I am not to pumped about it, chasing that area of of the High Plains is rough, roads are very few and far between, and storm motions will be nothing to laugh at tomorow. Thermodynamically the setup does not look all that special, however the further west one gets the less important the high DP's and CAPE's become, there is just to much Wind Shear to ignore tomorow, currently thinking of heading the the Thedford area, although as always subject to change. How about next Tuesday, can someone say E KS!!![/b]

Agreed Dustin, I have my eye on next Tues. as well. Really hoping for something a little closer to home like the intersection of KS/NE/MO/IA type area. Anyway, definitely not chasing today and tomorrow it will just be fairly locally if the cold core setup looks worth it.

[Dustin Wilcox]

Well I'm not chasing today, as I feel horrible, I'm pretty pissed as I think today looks even better this morning, my chase partner is heading out though and I still Think the North Platte area could be a decent prelimanary target

[Dustin Wilcox]

Unfortuantley (due to 2 tests on Monday), things have trended towards making tomorow a more favorable, to close too miss chase for me. Pretty phsyced about the 65 dp's forecast by the NAM to wrap all the way up into the sfc low, if >1500j/kg CAPES are realized NE of that low watch out, conditions appear ripe for low-topped sups. Pretty easy to nail the target on these setups, get tucked right on the NE side of that sfc low, although as of now location of that low is a little dicey as models scoot it pretty quick during the afternoon hours, certinly won't be a get out and setup the tripod kind of day as storms will be scooting. Currently looks like a go for me, although I will hold out until post 12Z runs to make a final call, plus I wana see what impact convective debris from tongihts activity will play. Currently thinking since I live on HWY 30 I'll probably just pick up the low at around noon when it passes here and follow it ENE. 4km is pretty interesting, although I would like the DL/CF to not buldge too much allowing for better advection into the low.

[Josh Richardson]

I was thinking more like HWY 20 but either way W Central IA will be the play and I am almost certain I will have to be out tomorrow. Its going to be a pain chasing these speedy things but at least its in my backyard.