August 11th Severe Chase outlook

Well tommorrow there looks to be a threat of severe thunderstorms accoss north georgia. I would see if I could take my first chase tommorrow, but I wanted Josh's and Deans thoughts first. There appears there will be a chance of severe thunderstorms tommorrow night. Also a [wiki]CAD[/wiki] situation will be in place across north GA tommorrow night. Which will be marginal if the sw winds can get here in time. Also by the time the front drags southward, the daytime heating will be over which would had been our greatest factor for instability so it does not look likely we will see a severe event in the Lake Lanier Ga area. Do you folks think the [wiki]CAD[/wiki] could break in time?

[Josh Richardson]

Well my thoughts are I would have to look into it first and get back to ya but I can try to do that tonight.* Also I am not familiar with CAD but Im sure this cold pooling should show up on any models or analysis if it was considerable enough.* Anyway I will try to add something to this later on when I get the chance.

Most people are not familar with CAD's. Check the wiki link for more information on it. :) Its very unique to the southeast and according to the latest AFD, it is likely.

000
FXUS62 KFFC 101951
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS ARE QUITE STRONG BUT NO REPORTS OF SVR WEATHER AS OF THIS
WRITING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE OR DISSIPATE BY 10 PM.

MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR WEATHER EVENT LIKELY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG WNW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
PRODUCED VERY ACTIVE MCS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT
SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE SVR STORMS AND OVERNIGHT MCS OVER THE MIDWEST
AND OH VALLEY. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SIMILAR PATTERN AND STRENGTH.
STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS BEHIND S/W WITH 1022MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO TN/KY BY
18Z FRI BY GFS/NAM/UKMET. WITH 25-30KT 500MB WNWLY FLOW AND SFC
FRONT... SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF AFTERNOON TEMPS GO
ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH WE EXPECT...SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER NORTH GA WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
BE GREATEST.

FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL GA BY 12Z SAT WITH WEDGING PATTERN
APPEARANT ON NAM/GFS/UKMET OVER NE GA. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSRA ON FRONT SAT AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE.
SVR WX THREAT SOMEWHAT LOWER AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE. HIGH TEMPS SAT ACROSS NE GA WILL BE PLEASANT IF MODELS
VERIFY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT STILL SHOWING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. GUIDANCE POPS LOOK GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE
HIGH FOR FRI AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LONG TERM PERIOD. GFS STILL INDICATES
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SERN U.S. AS LARGE HIGH
OVER LOW BLOCK OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC REDEVELOPS FURTHER EAST NEAR
THE U.K. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...BUT
HOPEFULLY NOT AS HOT AS WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNELSON[/b]

[Josh Richardson]

Actually what I meant is I know what CAD meant but I dont follow weather out there so Im not sure the significance it brings to an event, at any rate as I said I will try to scrape something together for ya.

[Josh Richardson]

Ok all I looked at was the next outlook by SPC and from that I figured not worth looking at models.* Just sounds like some multicellular stuff popping off to your north a tad but nothing interesting.* Didnt even deserve a 15% overall risk so I wouldnt even bother.* I can always check on some analysis tomorrow if I have the time and let ya know where to go if ya really want to but I dont really see the point unless you just mean your going to go out spotting as its pretty much just an isolated severe threat.

[dean]

i'll also keep my eye out for ya, but this isn't really the time of the year for significant severe weather downthere anyway.

I know, and the clouds are holding in pretty thick today. So it looks like the CAD will hold in place.

[dean]

looks to be mostly a wind event if anything today for GA, only a 5% hail risk and only a 15% wind risk.

[Josh Richardson]

I know, and the clouds are holding in pretty thick today. So it looks like the CAD will hold in place.[/b]

That is correct Dustin, it appears cloud cover will inhibit much of the daytime heating for you but to your south you may see storms able to fire a little faster.