Aug 22-24

[dean]

looks like a pretty good shot of severe weather over MN/SD/WI/IA/ND over the next 3 days. gonna be a very interesting three days to see what actually happens.

[Josh Richardson]

Thursday will either be a huge severe day or huge disapointment.* Possibility for a big severe weather outbreak with maybe tornadic supercells.* 30% already on the Day 3 and text talking about tornado threat along the WF.* Pretty strong words for a Day 3 but too much time left for this to get ruined.* One thing that could change everything is the convection from the period right before this.

[dean]

yep, and even though i would like to have severe weather all three of the days, i wouldn't mind having wednesday be capped so that the moisture flow doesn't get disrupted and the event on Thursday will be more likely to happen. i have to work both wednesday and thursday so there is no chance of me going out. :axehead :axehead :axehead :axehead :buck2: man i am SO pissed about that, since today wouldnt be a bad day in eastern SD, tomorrow, maybe go out and get some shelf cloud pics, and the main event on thursday, see my first tornado. but mother nature doesnt want that to happen, so i will be at work, hoping that a storm comes through and knocks out power so all i have to do is sit there and make sure noone is hurt. damn it, i'm missing maybe one of the best setups for MN this year!! :buck2: >:( >:( :axehead :axehead

I m confused as to why the NWS has such* small chance for storms and yet continues to talk about a severe weather event possible. I checked several counties in the sight risk area and they have only a 20-30% chance of storms later tonight. Is it because of the cap that they are keeping the chances low? At the same time they keep mentioning in thier forcast/weatherdiscusion and hazurdous weather outlook that a big severe weather event is possible tonight.
SPC also has a 5% chance of a tornado for the eastern dakotas and a 30% chance of hail for minnisota. Main threat would probibly be large hail/ damaging winds. I wonder if this mornings convection will help or ruin the chances of storms tonight? Have to see how this day turns out.

[dean]

which counties were they that you checked? because if it's in central Minnesota or farther east the chance of rain will be lower for tonight because the storms aren't forecasted to move in till early in the morning tomorrow. Otherwise, sometimes the NWS doesn't update their forecasts real often, so you could be looking at an older forecast.

That may be I checked a few counties for North Dakota and Minnisota and a few for Iowa. Mabey they will change the forcast in a bit.

[NWIASpotter]

Also realize that the forecast is made usually for a widespread area, such as an entire county or counties depending on how that office does it.* So if storms are expected to be scattered in nature, such that only 1 storm going through the forecast zone is expected.* Only 30-50% of the area in that forecast zone will receive precipation and thus only a 30-50% PoP is expected.

[dean]

so what about you Jayson, you thinking about heading out Wednesday or Thursday?

I checked again and there is a 60-70% chance of severe storms around the saint paul minnisota area but everywhere else I checked had 20-40% chance of storms. Thanks for pointing that out Jason does anyone know how strong the cap will be tonight?

[dean]

the cap is holding up pretty good right now and looks like it will till around 7 or so for the Dakotas.