Aug. 12

[dean]

a little ways out, but the person i chased with last weekend and me are thinking about possibly heading out to the Dakotas again on Saturday. After reading the SPC discussion for the Day 3 outlook it's not sounding real good for tornadoes (big shock ::)* ) but it does state that there will be the potential for a few supercells with large hail and damaging winds. Hopefully it looks more promising as we get closer.

[dean]

i'm liking southeastern North Dakota after looking at this mornings ETA and GFS, altough it doesnt look nearly as impressive as it did last night. Shear is weaker and more undirectional, helicity doesn't look as good, LI's arent as high, just not as impressive as it was last night, but if anything, it looks best in southeast North Dakota.

Dean do you plan to go chasing today, bud? I would, as it looks like it may have an early onset tornado events, before the storms merge.

* DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK*
* NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
* 1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006
*
* VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
*
* ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
* INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
*
* HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE
* ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATER TODAY.* AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
* ACROSS ID/MT IT SHOULD FORCE A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER UT NEWD
* INTO SD BY 00Z...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AN ELONGATED ZONE
* OF TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO ERN
* ND/NWRN MN.* THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
* EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD.
*
* LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING
* EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE ERN
* DAKOTAS/MN AS LLJ FEEDS ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.* ALTHOUGH THIS
* ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...IT APPEARS
* STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER
* HEATS ALONG WIND SHIFT.* FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
* MAINTAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
* FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 21Z...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
* ADDED ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
* STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IT APPEARS SUPERCELL
* STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
* CONVECTIVE CYCLE.* THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONVECT QUICKLY AND
* EXPAND LINEARLY NEWD* FROM CO INTO MN BY 00Z.* LATEST FORECAST
* SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXIST AHEAD OF
* WEAK SFC LOW FROM ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN BETWEEN 21Z-03Z.* THIS SFC
* FEATURE APPEARS CORRELATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD
* RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES BEFORE STORM MERGERS AND MULTI-CELL
* CLUSTERS BECOME DOMINATE.* OTHERWISE...SUFFICIENT
* MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LINGER WITHIN POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS
* THE NRN PLAINS FOR AN ELEVATED ANA-TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO DEVELOP
* ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/ND LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY MAIN
* UPPER TROUGH THAT APPROACHES AFTER DARK.* LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
* PRIMARY SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION.
*
* ...ELSEWHERE...
*
* STATIONARY...DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE FROM GA...WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF
* STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL FOCUS CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY.* VERY
* MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY ENHANCE LOCAL WET
* MICROBURSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PROVE TOO
* DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE PERIOD.[/b]

[dean]

it's looking like i will probably be out again today, but not quite 100% yet.