April 30, 2007 FCST IA/MN

[Josh Richardson]

I have yet to really have the chance to look over much but I see we have some pretty decent cape values moving into our area and vertical shear values look sufficient enough to produce supercells along the WF possibly stretching across Northern IA.* I will be at home studying most of the week but have already planned to be chasing this one as Kenny Grimm and I will be heading out on whatever the day brings us.* Another backyard chase for me, hopefully this one will be a little better.* I will give more details later on when I have more a chance to look over things.

Yea, looking in the spc outlook nothing looks to really inhibit the storms from what I've seen. No mention of a lack of instability.

yea, CAPE looks decent.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_0_cape_72.gif

[pman]

GFS is slower and farther north, and the NAM faster and farther south, but as of right now I'd say a decent target zone would be near Rochester, MN.

MPX fd already is mentioning tornado potential:

WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN..THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SE MN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. OPERATIONAL
GFS FARTHEST NORTH ...BUT ENSEMBLE PATH IS CLOSER TO NAM WITH
CENTER PASSING OVER SE MN. LOOKS LIKE A TORNADO THREAT SE CORNER
OF OUR CWA...IF ABOVE PATH TAKES PLACE.[/b]

If the NAM slows it down and moves farther north, like the its newest 18z run is hinting at, the Albert Lea to Owatonna area looks better.* This is one I'd really like to chase, but school comes first at this point, but who knows, I could get a t-storm or two farther north as well.* Looks like a nice short chase for you Josh, are you planning on going out dean?

EDIT: btw, Monday is the 30th of April

[Josh Richardson]

GFS is slower and farther north, and the NAM faster and farther south, but as of right now I'd say a decent target zone would be near Rochester, MN.

MPX fd already is mentioning tornado potential:
If the NAM slows it down and moves farther north, like the its newest 18z run is hinting at, the Albert Lea to Owatonna area looks better.* This is one I'd really like to chase, but school comes first at this point, but who knows, I could get a t-storm or two farther north as well.* Looks like a nice short chase for you Josh, are you planning on going out dean?

EDIT: btw, Monday is the 30th of April[/b]

Thats exactly why I said Albert Lea to Rochester for a target area.* Maybe I posted that at Shane's site, I dont remember.* Either way, so far the last few systems have been slower so Im going with that for right now.* LOL, I just noticed that also about that date, Im blaming Alex for that one as at StormCenter he started the thread with the may 1st date and screwed me all up!!

[Josh Richardson]

I dont believe there is really much to like on either of the latest runs from the GFS and the NAM to be honest, its still obvious that the best parameters remain over into SW WI and the NAM does break some sort of a cell in the Albert Lea area but then it dies off pretty quick and thats the only action for the day. The GFS doesnt even break anything out in this area so either way doesnt look good. Skew-T for Albert Lea is showing LCL's around 1900 at 00Z, hail is down to .3 inch and supercell composite is down about 20% from last night. I'll check it out tomorrow just because Im right there anyway but I sure wouldnt make a trip for this one.

[Josh Richardson]

Well, even though I thought the Day 1 would look horrible I was wrong.* SPC still liking the area just to my ENE along the WF.* Initiation could be anywhere from a Mason City/Albert Lea to a Rochester/Cresco line.* Im hoping for somewhere inbetween there and not the latter.* 4.5 km NMM WRF is showing a sup breaking out over towards the Rochester area.* Either way, I think tomorrow is going to be a one shot deal, get on the first and probably only supercell and you may be rewarded. Of course, with SPC throwing the 5% TOR risk out there that means Im probably jinxed.

looks like a decent shot of tornados. You get a natural windshift with the warm front itself and with most storms likely riding right along the front itself they should be able to captialize on this. Also the NAM is hinting at moisture pooling right along the warm front with surface dews jumping a good 5+ degrees in the pooling areas which will aid in tornadic development. Id take a shot and ride toward NE Iowa and W Wisconsin if I were chasing tomorrow.*

[Josh Richardson]

looks like a decent shot of tornados. You get a natural windshift with the warm front itself and with most storms likely riding right along the front itself they should be able to captialize on this. Also the NAM is hinting at moisture pooling right along the warm front with surface dews jumping a good 5+ degrees in the pooling areas which will aid in tornadic development. Id take a shot and ride toward NE Iowa and W Wisconsin if I were chasing tomorrow.*[/b]

Im gonna go with staying a few miles back of that area as the river valley and bluffs are almost impossible to chase. We're planning on a few miles south of Rochester and could go either way from that.

[Josh Richardson]

Well so far this one is a cap bust as nothing along the WF or south of it has been able to form.* On top of that we have had significant mixing happen, Craig and Fabian took off back home and I decided to head back home as well and just watch over some CU off to my north just in case something finally fires.* That one is a pretty big "if" though.

[dean]

looks like i might end up with more severe weather than you guys down there. new severe thunderstorm warning for Hennepin county (county just to my west) and looks like these storms are moving due east right for me, so if they stay together, i might have a good evening. looks like hail might be up to quarter size, but the tops have been decreasing so i'm thinkin this storm might be dying, however the DBz return increased to 66 DBz.