4/21/2007 FCST: NE,KS,CO,OK,TX

[Dustin Wilcox]

Please note that this is only wishcasting at this point, and this thread will most likely need to be renamed as the event nears, and maybe even be deleted.* But my Wishcast is as follows.

As to be expected the models are still all over the place with next weekend; however both the ECMWF and the GFS still show what I feel is decent severe potential next weekend.* The 12Z ECMWF are not in yet but previous runs have been all over the place and real inconsistent with timing and placement of the trough on Friday. But either way it does have the trough and SW flow present at some point next weekend.* Yesterdays 12Z had the trough moving into the plains on Friday but the 0Z was once again slower with the trough still in the West on Friday.* The GFS has been jumping around a little as well, but it has been more consistent with Eastward progression.* While the SPC in the 4-8 day don't really seem to confident in the potential for svr wx, if runs such as the 12Z GFS from today continue, their confidence will most likely change.* * While it doesn't scream outbreak setup, the GFS has a broad trough moving through on SAT with 60kt SW 500mb flow, moisture return looks plentiful with 60-65DP's working N beneath a 40kt LLJ, the GFS picks up on a vast area of >2000j/kg CAPES over KS and NE with a Surface low developing in W KS.* While this far out any forecasting is wishcasting, it's nice to at least see the potential for svr wx return, and if next Saturdays 12Z run looks anything like this Saturdays I will be chasing.*

If this system continues to materialize throughout the coming week, I will keep updates on my website on the Chase forecast page.*

Good post dude, right now the spc long run outlook,,,us not showing anything but I am sure it will more towards the end of the week.

Hmm, should this be merged with the other topic in the wx area?

[pman]

Well, this one could be kept open for chase forecasts and chase outlooks, and the other one for discussion.* I didn't even see this thread because it was within a double sub-forum when I started the general one.* Whatever works though* O0

Sounds good. O0

[Josh Richardson]

Hmm, should this be merged with the other topic in the wx area?[/b]

I believe Dustin's intention of this thread is for a possible chase forecast so it should stay where it is at.* As the threat draws near we will rename the thread with a date and region or states effected.

[Josh Richardson]

As of right now it appears Southern NE or Northern KS could be the place to be on Sat. and then moving into IA on Sun.* If I can get enough studying done this week it looks like I could chase Sat.* Definitely chasing on Sun. so far as long as their is a threat as I will be meeting up with Craig as he heads back from his Sat. chase.* Still waiting to see but a couple others may be going as well.

[Josh Richardson]

Well models have certainly changed things around a bit again now for Sunday and SPC not showing any threat.* We'll just have to keep a watch over and maybe I will be heading to KS or OK for Sat. instead, I guess.*

[supercell16]

I've been monitoring it to. They been saying that the dryline will come out in the East Texas panhandle and the Western Oklahoma county line. Out ahead of the dryline will be dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s with sufficient low-level windshear values. Since I live in central Oklahoma they said the best shot for seeing some tornadoes would be I-35 and westward.

[Dustin Wilcox]

An interesting setup to monitor, amazing to me is the consistency of the GFS besides the unavoidable settle changes the GFS has been on track since at least last Thursday when I began to eye this setup.* The GFS still is the quickest solution while the UK and European are a little slower with the ejecting trough.* I have a hard time not sticking with the GFS due to its aforementioned consistency, as well as the way the WRF as far as it reaches matches the GFS's solutions for the same time.* Currently the setup looks like a good chase day to me, many seem concerned about forecast moisture, but T/DP depressions will remain settle due to time of year and forecast temperatures.* 57-60 dp's will be suffice as plenty of cold air will add the the instability present.* Tonights 0Z GFS is a little stronger with the northern portion of the ejecting trough and has the surface low farther to the North, pressure falls all along the high plains seem likely allowing for settle surface backing all along the dry line extending from SD south to the TX area.* With a 500mb Jet of 60kts and a LLJ of 40kts I think anywhere along the dryline runs the chance for supercells, localized areas will see their parameters maximized, but at this point its to early to forecast where.* Any of the current pessimistic thoughts that arise about this system I just refer back to March 28th when I had concerns about lack of real deep moisture and southerly 500mb flow and what that day yielded.* While not sure exactly were yet I will be chasing this day, current indications I think would lead me to NW OK or SW KS, but still 90+ hrs out its hard to say were we'll end up.