This Is Why 08and 99l Have No Chance.

[winter123]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[pman]

Hm... kind of looks dry in the Gulf

[CaribWx]

QUOTE (pman @ Oct 14 2007, 11:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hm... kind of looks dry in the Gulf [/b]

That's probably going to change...TROF from NW Cribbean across Bahamas NE-ward into Atlantic should regress NW-ward this week, moistening atmosphere in the GOMEX...and allowing a return flow to begin, pulling moist air from Tropics, thru GOMEX, into the US, supplying ingredients for the severe weather everyone's expecting later next week.

I think we'll see GOMEX moisten beginning Tue16. 99L may reemerge from Yucatan Tue16 or Wed17. 98L is not likely to reemerge into BayOfCampechee (too far South), but, if it did, it would probably do so about Wed17.

I am NOT saying 99L will develop. But I think atmosphere should be sufficiently-moist to not inhibit 99L, if it does emerge off the Yucatan as an intact feature.

[BigNeerav]

QUOTE (CaribWx @ Oct 14 2007, 08:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's probably going to change...TROF from NW Cribbean across Bahamas NE-ward into Atlantic should regress NW-ward this week, moistening atmosphere in the GOMEX...and allowing a return flow to begin, pulling moist air from Tropics, thru GOMEX, into the US, supplying ingredients for the severe weather everyone's expecting later next week.

I think we'll see GOMEX moisten beginning Tue16. 99L may reemerge from Yucatan Tue16 or Wed17. 98L is not likely to reemerge into BayOfCampechee (too far South), but, if it did, it would probably do so about Wed17.

I am NOT saying 99L will develop. But I think atmosphere should be sufficiently-moist to not inhibit 99L, if it does emerge off the Yucatan as an intact feature.[/b]

The air should not be a problem for the next two days or so, as you said. I think it may not develop in the short-term, but I do see conditions getting somewhat more favorable within the next week for development in the GoM.