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12-09-2007, 03:28 AM
| | Senior Member | | Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Jupiter
Posts: 710
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seems like that area has some potential. The SE ridge will certainly make things favorable.
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12-09-2007, 05:30 AM
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So late in the season? Wouldn't shear make it pretty hard to develop? |
12-09-2007, 05:31 AM
| | Hurricane | | Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Alabama
Posts: 611
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Not gonna get any help from SST's unless something forms in the Caribbean.   |
12-09-2007, 12:44 PM
| | Moderator | | Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 474
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It looks like we have ST Invest: QUOTE Quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2007
SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF ST1.5 WAS ASSIGNED TO A LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N54W.[/b]
| Since there is really nothing to look at winterwise.
This might actualy have a chance to do something, as it moves westward (thanks to the same mid level ridge keeping the SE US warm) into the central or western Caribbean, better upper level conditions by then, its not just the CMC but the Euro has been off and on closing off a surface low in the Caribbean for the last couple of days. GFS and NOGAPS show a weak low moving westward into the Caribbean. 
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12-09-2007, 02:05 PM
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If this thing did develop where would it head? Into mexico or the yucatan? |
12-09-2007, 02:54 PM
| | Moderator | | Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 474
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Yucatan or C.A.
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12-09-2007, 03:27 PM
| | Hurricane | | Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Poughkeepsie, New York
Posts: 2,223
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The NHC has this as an Invest, with one of the floaters eyeing it, as posted above already by one of our members. Here is the animation of that same image: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Unfortunately, even though the storm looks interesting, I see no hints of an LLC attemtping to develop, at least at the moment, but if one does form, it will be intertesting (though unlikely at this point). Wind shear does not seem bad at all right now in that region, but I am concerned about water temperatures, as someone has pointed, as it has cooled down over the past month or so.
Overall, I doubt that this will turn anything of significance, such as a tropical depression, at most, but will be interesting to watch over the next few days to see what happens to it.
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12-09-2007, 03:30 PM
| | Hurricane | | Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Poughkeepsie, New York
Posts: 2,223
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Here is the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion's mention of this area of disturbance:
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF ST1.5 WAS ASSIGNED TO A LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 14N TO 23N. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA ALONG 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N52W TO 12N63W TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.
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12-09-2007, 04:22 PM
| | Moderator | | Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Orlando, FL
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Lets get this right, SST are warm enough for Subtropical or tropical development, where this system is right now, which is in the low 80s.
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12-09-2007, 06:02 PM
| | Hurricane | | Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Poughkeepsie, New York
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Quote: |
Lets get this right, SST are warm enough for Subtropical or tropical development, where this system is right now, which is in the low 80s.[/b]
| Yeah, duh, I realized that AFTER I made that post! In any case, I do not think it will really develop into anything of signifcance, and if it does, it would be a tropical depression at best.
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