new system possible

[Frozen_Signal]

looking like a new tropical system may be in the works....


THE TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.



tropics are finally starting to heat up!!

[CaptJackSparrow]

batten down th' hatches!

[hurricane-guy]

I have been watching this system for a while now and I do see it becoming a TD within the next 24 hrs. I really dont see why it cant just pull itself together? Conditions are favorable and later this evening conditions will be very favorable for this wave to organize itself and form a good surface low pressure center. When it finally does develop, dont expect it to stay a TD very long, because the winds are probably already TS force. I would expect rapid intensification ESPECIALLY if it just slows itself down. I think the speed has been the problem so far because it is moving relatively fast and it cant keep up with itself.

[hurricane-guy]

Tropical Storm: Storm-Centered Satellite Image : Weather Underground

UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[hurricane-guy]

Well the tropical wave has now became Tropical storm Dolly as most of you already know.
It is posing a threat to southern Texas and into Northern Mexico. I am pretty much in
agreeance with the models, I could see a hit anywhere from Corpus Christi to Brownsville, Tx.
I dont think cat 1 is as high as Dolly can go. So anyone in this region needs to hope for the
best, and prepare for the worst. I think it will at LEAST get up to cat 2 and IF it slows down
some POSSIBLY even a major cat 3. Doesnt really look like that will happen right now.

The main threat from this system RIGHT NOW is going to be flooding, because it is going to
expand in the warm gulf waters and effect a large area. Right now I can already see better
circulation, and a large burst of convection is to its northeast so further intensification is highly
expected from me today.

When the storm was over the Yucatan Peninsula last night, it didnt disorganize as much
as we first thought it would. This is because the warm waters around the Yucatan were
fueling this system even when the COC was inland.

This storm will be very interesting to watch over the next couple of days as it crosses the
warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, but the people of southern Texas and Northern
Mexico should be on high alert for this hurricane in the making.

[herasday]

Hi hurricaneguy. Thanks for posting that. I am the "weatherdummy" here, but like to watch the hurricanes and learn. I was just looking at the NHC satellite loop and it looks to me like Dolly is pulling herself together and opening a sultry eye to the camera. (Literallly looks like an "eye opening" on the 1545 UTC frame of the current loop...more convection on the northern aspect, but definitely showing circular rim starting to form like an "iris" peaking out through a half opened eyelid....I love it when the images actually look like an "eye"!!.

I think there is some definite rotation forming, too, more defined than earlier frames. Pressure is down 3 mb from 1008 three hours ago to 1005 and hurricane watches are issued from Brownsville north (and Mexico has them out also from Brownsville south).

Check it out. Tropical Floater Two Visible Imagery - Satellite Services Division

[hurricane-guy]

Yeah I know what you mean about weather dummy. Im only 15 so I know I have a lot more to learn.

I looked at that loop, and yes it does have a cloudy eye visible and forming. Once the southern end of this system gets into the warm waters is when the most intensification will take place. It already looks very organized and at the next update I will expect a strong 60-70 mph Tropical storm.

I really dont pay much attention to computer models unless they are all basicly the same. If you look back at a previous hurricane on wunderground and you look to see how the models did, it is bad. Usually you only want forcast with the models if the storm is close to land. Right now the models are somewhat agreeing but they are starting to take a turn to the north and they might even bring it a little more north.


Looks like it took a jog to the north yesterday evening and last night.
If it does that again as far up as Houston needs to watch out for at least TS force winds and flood potential because the north side of the storm will be hitting that region and right now that is the side that looks most impressive.

[hurricane-guy]

The new models came in from the National Hurricane Center at 1pm and they havent changed much for the landfall, BUT they have started taking more of a northerly turn after landfall. We will see if this north transition continues and if it does, then it may provide west texas with some beneficial rainfall. Somthing good could come out of Dolly???
Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground