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10-30-2007, 04:17 PM
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http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/  QUOTE Quote: |
Unless a dramatic and historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 9 weeks, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (January-TODAY, Accumulated Cyclone Energy). For the period of June 1 - TODAY, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007. For the North Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Noel is currently too weak to impact any of these results. However, one should always be prepared for late-season developments since hurricane season ends on November 30.[/b]
| See if the global warming theorists were correct we would had not had such a quiet year. Of course what caused this to be a quiet year has nothing to do with Sea Surface Temperatures and much more to do with teleconnections causing a strong bit of shear and a strong ridge along the southeast coast.
What do you guys think?
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10-30-2007, 08:22 PM
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Interesting, but not surprising. 2005 was an abnormally active year, but aside from that, the last several years haven't been all that active. 2006 and 2007 have especially been rather quiet. Based on historical trends, I expect hurricane activity to continue to gradually decline over the next few decades, as we're starting to head into a 30-year period with less activity.
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10-30-2007, 10:35 PM
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Climate will never draw a perfect line when it comes to hurricanes. you have your on and off years. i just love though how al gore says "2005's season was because of global warming and the years to come will be the same if not worse". don't know if it is me but.....i don't think last year was bad at all and this year wasn't all that horrible. we had some storms but not what "global warming" could have made.
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11-01-2007, 05:14 AM
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Kevin, 2004 was very active for FL and then 2005 was very active aswell. Not sure if you forgot 2004? |
11-01-2007, 08:58 AM
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Quote: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
See if the global warming theorists were correct we would had not had such a quiet year. Of course what caused this to be a quiet year has nothing to do with Sea Surface Temperatures and much more to do with teleconnections causing a strong bit of shear and a strong ridge along the southeast coast.
What do you guys think?[/b]
| "Days of activity" is hardly the best way to track this, but it works to some extent. However, this year was still above average for the Atlantic at least.
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11-01-2007, 12:16 PM
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Quote: |
Kevin, 2004 was very active for FL and then 2005 was very active aswell. Not sure if you forgot 2004?[/b]
| I didn't say anything about 2004, and several hurricanes in that season caused serious problems in Asheville; I won't forget that.
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11-01-2007, 03:49 PM
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2004 was NOT active Matthew. That's such a misconception. 2004 just had the bermuda ridge in the right place. If Dean had gone up and destroyed houston texas people would had thought this year was active. 2004 started very late, and just had an abnormal high postion which shoved 4 storms into Florida. |
11-01-2007, 10:48 PM
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Quote: |
2004 was NOT active Matthew. That's such a misconception. 2004 just had the bermuda ridge in the right place. If Dean had gone up and destroyed houston texas people would had thought this year was active. 2004 started very late, and just had an abnormal high postion which shoved 4 storms into Florida.[/b]
| The graph you posted at the start of this thread disagrees with that. 2004 and 2005 had almost identical numbers of tropical cyclone days. It's almost like you're disagreeing with yourself. How is a season with 15 storms, 9 hurricanes, and 8 U.S. landfalls an inactive season?
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11-02-2007, 01:22 AM
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I think close ended statements like "Global warming has nothing to do with hurricanes" or "Humans are causing global climate change" are inherently risky because they try to marginalize an issue and squeeze phenomena such as climate and weather into a little box.
The fact is Earths weather is profoundly complicated and is subject to influence from multitudes of sources so to take the title of this thread literally and assume the Earths atmosphere heating up "has nothing to do with" the storms it produces would be ludircous.
Although I do agree.. Al Gores climate flick jumped to conclusions... apparently he to has not considered the remarkably complexity of Earths climate systems.
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