Invest 95 L

[Future4caster]

So what do you guys think about that storm?

In fact I predict 60% chance that this system will be named subtropical storm Paulo before it weakens comepletly into an extratropical cyclone.

[NDG]

Looks fairly good for it to become STS Paulo, specially if it starts retrograding towards the SW towards warmer waters as models are pointing out.

[BigNeerav]

Yup......this is VERY strange! We are getting tropical development in late December! What I am not sure of is this a product of the moderate to strong La Nina that we have going on now, which is keeping the Atlantic favorable for tropical development even into late December.

As for Invest 95L, this storm looks healthy as it moves north and east. Examining both the visible satellite and the infrared, I see a healthy LLC and some of those thunderstorms starting to wrap around the LLC. Hoepfully, it will become stationary, as the NHC is forecasting, since the satellite animation seems to indicate that. Throughout the night, we should see the thunderstorms continue to slowly wrap around the LLC, thereby increasing its strength. This would be even more so, as I mentioned, once it becomes stationary

Therefore, I agree that we could see Subtropical Paulo by the end of this weekend.

Here is the latest visible satellite animation of Invest 95L and the central Altlantic Ocean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html (Floater image of Invest 95L)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html (animation of the central Atlantic Ocean)

[BigNeerav]

Here is the latest Special Disturbance Statement by the NHC on Invest 95L:

000
WONT41 KNHC 291919
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM AST SAT DEC 29 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO

[Future4caster]

QUOTE (NDG @ Dec 29 2007, 04:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Looks fairly good for it to become STS Paulo, specially if it starts retrograding towards the SW towards warmer waters as models are pointing out.


[/b]

You can clearly see that strongest winds are away from the center...hence a subtropical system.

[winter123]

Whoa, ripped apart. What are chances of shear letting up/redevelopment?


EDIT: Well it survived the first two fronts pretty well, maybe it can survive this too.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?r...amp;loop=yes2x2
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?r...amp;loop=yes2x2
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?r...amp;loop=yes2x2

[winter123]

Judging by the WV it has no chance. Too bad, it got so close and I would have loved to see another january storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html


Anyway Happy New Year!

[winter123]

Oooh, low shear/moist air is overcoming the gale center from the east, this could get very interesting.... it's a nice looking gale center it just needs the convection to build around, which it appears to be starting.

[BigNeerav]

QUOTE (winter123 @ Jan 1 2008, 12:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oooh, low shear/moist air is overcoming the gale center from the east, this could get very interesting.... it's a nice looking gale center it just needs the convection to build around, which it appears to be starting.[/b]

There is some sort of circulation forming with Invest 95L, but I am more concerned with the rather vast area of dry air around it, which it is entering or already well into, which may end up killing it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[winter123]

Not an invest anymore. I give up. Even though it may track similar to the last storm, over PR and Haiti and I would think the waters are warm enough there. Strong convection on the SE side but I think northerly shear will destroy that today. Arthur, see you in May! :P