Invest 94l

#1 10-07-2007, 02:17 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.../track_vis/dmsp

#2 10-07-2007, 03:38 AM

Some models show a FL threat. Any thoughts at all guys?

weatherbee1982 · #3 10-07-2007, 09:52 AM

For the first time in a long while, I am looking at a tropical wave located @ an area without extreme amounts of shear over it. The shear present over this system is from the N at around 5-10 kts, which is light compared to what the rest of the Atlantic and GoM basins are experiencing at this time. The shear tendency has been holding steady, if not decreasing slightly at 5 knots over the last 24 hours. With that said, there is not as much diffluence over the tropical wave as I would like to see but the environment is trending towards providing more diffluence aloft. This should allow for the system to begin organization should any MCS clusters form during the diurnal maximum this morning.

As many have noticed with almost every Invest this season, the computer models out in any basin have a hard time getting a handle with the initial motion of the system should it form. The initial motion for the next 24 hours should be 270/5, before shifting to 285/5 during the subsequent 24 hours. As the steering flow is quite light, this is subject to change and is only based on mean steering flow available between 500-850 mb.

#4 10-07-2007, 03:35 PM

Great post. Looking at the sat loop it has a lot of convection and is very disorganized, but if it could not get shoved into the yucatan which some models are showing I think it has a chance.

#5 10-07-2007, 04:12 PM

http://www.theweathervane.info/forums/inde...showtopic=11181

NDG · #6 10-07-2007, 04:37 PM

This system definitely looks like it has the best chance in the Atlantic basin, pressures continue to fall, but like the NHC said on its latest TWO discu. there is still no defined LLC. Interesting that the Euro keeps this system or pressures low in the area for at least the next 10 days, so this system may not move around much until the trough moving into the eastern US exits by next weekend. I would not be surprised if the western Caribbean produces at least 2-3 named systems before the season is over.

BigNeerav · #7 10-07-2007, 04:46 PM

I would give this storm a good potential to become a threat to the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic, if the stupid models stop taking every freaking tropical cyclone into Mexico or Central America!

#8 10-07-2007, 04:49 PM

Well the models are just "stupid", Neerav. They take things given the current weather patterns dude, and this weather pattern is not great for US landfalls. Also why would you give it that potential? Based on what factors.

#9 10-07-2007, 04:51 PM

Quote:

http://www.theweathervane.info/forums/inde...showtopic=11181[/b]

Ok, because I said that this season can't do anything? What's your point, it was just a general thought at the time.

BigNeerav · #10 10-07-2007, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Well the models are just "stupid", Neerav. They take things given the current weather patterns dude, and this weather pattern is not great for US landfalls. Also why would you give it that potential? Based on what factors.[/b]

LOL! Just on that factor.......the models are idiotic, and this year have really not had much of a clue as to what is going on in the tropics, save for a couple of good hits. Anyways, if this develops, I would say that it has the chance to maybe go into the Gulf of Mexico and possible be a Gulf Coast threat. We'll see.