Invest 92l!

[winter123]

but impressive.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/mediter...hara_dust.x.jpg

[reedzone]

QUOTE (winter123 @ Nov 5 2007, 06:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

but impressive.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/mediter...hara_dust.x.jpg[/b]

Very interesting.. this could be 92L later and possibly Olga in a few days.. as it drifts south, it should encounter warm enough waters to be classified a subtropical cyclone, might eb one right now.

What about shear though? Also with it becoming fall the SST's are droping so I would not give it much of a chance.

[reedzone]

QUOTE (Dustin @ Nov 5 2007, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What about shear though? Also with it becoming fall the SST's are droping so I would not give it much of a chance.[/b]

This is what makes this feature so interesting.. there seems to be an anticyclone to the east of the low.. that could keep shear low in that general area and as it moves west I think.. it should allow the low to intensify a bit.. so it has a chance at subtropical chararistics at best.. wouldn't surprise me if it does go all the way.. but it will take days.

I'd have to imagine the SST's would be low there, and those types of storms tend to just spin around in circles but it will be interesting to track. I don't think it will get anywhere close to north america.

[Matthew]

Based on sab it is already a subtroical storm 2.5/2.5. This thing has improved greatly, and I expect it to gain the 15th named by tomarrow.

[pman]

From the NHC:

QUOTE

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON NOV 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.[/b]

[Matthew]

QUOTE (pman @ Nov 6 2007, 04:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

From the NHC:[/b]

The nhc must be smoking some good crack right now to believe that a system with a ring of well organized convection, almost forming a eye. Is disorganized. I think the nhc needs to seriously think about looking at a new loop of this system, and also finding new words to say.

This will be a 50-60 knot system by tomarrow morning at this rate of organizion.,

[winter123]

Convection moving to the center... and by the satellite loop you can tell shear is surprisingly low over this. There is an ULL to the north and east creating low shear over the STS. But I think naming this now would be lowering the bar a little more than it has already been lowered... convection isn't too strong and the winds don't look that high.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[pman]

Convection looks even weaker now on sat, and the NHC has officially stated they expect no development.
Looks like the 2007 season is probably just about over.

QUOTE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.[/b]