Invest 92

[hurricane-guy]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located over the central Atlantic about 1100 miles east of the
Windward Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
been slowly increasing during the past 24 hours...and conditions
appear somewhat favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next couple of days as it moves westward at 15 to 20
mph.

I see this system becoming our next Tropical depression over the next few days.
It has a lot of dry air to battle with, but if it can keep it up then conditions will be
favorable when it gets over South America, where there is more moisture for this
storm to work with. The models are in agreeance with taking it to the eastern Caribbean
islands and into Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic area. It is still a long ways out, but
it is looking pretty impressive. Also there is another system right behind this one, and if
this one doesnt make it, then the other one will have a good chance of development so
therefore, we could be seeing the next two TDs withen the next few days.
North Atlantic Water Vapor Imagery - Satellite Services Division

[Frozen_Signal]

if theyre following a relatively congruent track....wouldnt the second wave/disturbance have a harder time forming due to upwelling or is that basically for stronger systems??

[hurricane-guy]

Well it is 9:38am Central time here and invest 93 looks better than 92 as far as convection goes
Today I would say that the second storm (invest 93)
has a good chance of forming into a TD also. There is a lot of dry air to the west and 92 gets
torn up with the dry air, then 93 will have a much better chance because the dry air would
have moistened up a bit. The major factor here is the dry air though. And invest 92 is not
strong enough of a storm to produce any significant upwelling that would threaten the
development of invest 93. Also the water is very warm right now at about 28-29C. And
invest 92 is moving too fast for upwelling to be a problem, because usually for upwelling
to be a problem the storm would have to be moving less than 10mph or like you said be
a much larger and stronger system. And right now it is moving at 13 mph, and is a small
storm. The circulation on it is quite impressive right now with most of the high winds to
the southeast where all of the convection is.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/...ms/WMBds26.png

[hurricane-guy]

Over night invest 92 has built up convection as the dry air to the west receded. The
models on this system are now shifting it to the Northwest, missing the majority of the
Lessar Antilles, and going more towards the bahamas and the South East coast. The
area of broad circulation that was with invest 92 yesterday, has changed into a more
disorganized area of an elongated center. The National Hurricane Center is giving this
system a high chance of development, possibly by tommarow evening.

Meanwhile invest 93 has shown little to no impressive organization and while overnight
it flares up it quickly fizzles out when daytime comes around. It does have a good organized
area of curculation with it, but the lack of convection will not alow further development. The
conditions are favorable with wind shear below 10 knots, so it still is somthing we should keep
our eye on. The models do not agree with each other as far as the direction. The GFS is taking
it to the west towards the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, and the BAMD is taking it out to the
Atlantic grave yard. The only model taking it to the East coast is the GFDL.

We will definatly be keeping our eye out on both of these systems.

[Frozen_Signal]

thanks for the updates....glad youre here helping inform us......

got another question....where is the NHC getting these invest 92...93...etc?? wouldnt they rather invest 1....then move to 2....and so on....i never understood where they got the 91...92...etc....unless its longitude or latitude?? sort of a dumb question but since youre a rising met...maybe you know.............thanks!

[hurricane-guy]

Before I start this next update I want to answer your question.
I dont know. But I have emailed the webmaster of the National Hurricane
Center, (who is practicly my best friend considering the number of times
we have talked) and usually he emails me within the next day or so. That
is a very interesting question though.

Today, the National Hurricane Center has went down on there probability of
invest 92 developing into a Tropical Depression to a moderate chance, but
invest 93 has been left at a moderate and has a more concentrated area of
thunderstorms, however conditions dont look to favorable to support development
with wind shear to the storms northwest reaching 20-30knots and looking at it now
it doesnt look like that concentrated area of thunderstorms will sustain itself
throughout the day.

Invest 92 that was brought down to a moderate chance of development has
quickly rebuilt convection and is holding on to itself, but right now it has a small
window of opportunity to develop before dry air and high wind shear tear the storm apart.

The only one between these two that could effect any land area looks to be invest 92,
as the models are pulling it towards the bahama islands, and even if it doesnt develop
the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico are at threat for some inclement weather.

[hurricane-guy]

This is what Christopher Juckins of the National Hurricane Center told me.


According to the National Hurricane Operations Plan
(NHOP) the invests are numbered 90s for test systems. The identifier
keeps these invests from appearing on operational systems sending out
false alarms. Hope that helps.

[hurricane-guy]

This morning there is a whole different story for the Atlantic. Invest 92
has intensified and now looks very likely to be a tropical depression some
time today. The storm has adjusted to its enviornment and has set up a
moistening pattern so it can moisten up the dry air that was causing it to
not develop. This is a VERY dangerous situation for everyone on the Southeast
coast as the models are pulling it through the warm Bahama islands into a
possible Florida hit. The stationary front off the coast SHOULD prevent it
from entering the Gulf. Since it has started moistening its surroundings expect
development to be quick, It has good inflow and outflow, so there is a very high
chance that it will develop into our next tropical storm or even hurricane. I will be
watching this and keeping everyone informed.

Invest 93...gone
Invest 93 is no longer invest 93 as convection quickly disipated last night and this
morning, however there is a new wave moving off the coast of Africa that will be
worth watching.

Also there is a chance that a ridge of high pressure will move and get stuck in the
south east, (much like 2004 and 2005) which as most of you know would allow anything
that develops to move into warm gulf waters. The main factor on this though will be how
long this ridge will stay in this area, could be days, weeks, or months. This is Very much worth
watching for those of you in the gulf however for those on the East coast it would shelter you
and prevent you from being a target of a tropical system.

We will be watching.

[Frozen_Signal]

the latest models have it hitting FL and then moving inland over the carolinas.......could this be the drought buster ppl in the SE have been waiting a few years for??

although the disturbance is not a TD yet....im willing to bet a hunter will be flying in there today and report a TD has formed....im looking 4ward to hurricanedude's prognosis and thoughts...

[hurricane-guy]

Thank you frozen signal I will try to keep everone updated.

For today, I am really surprised that the hurricane hunters havent found
a closed surface circulation yet. It is looking really impressive and I am not
sure with a landfall point yet, because it looks like the center of the system
is shifting to the south which will put a larger threat on South Florida for
landfall. All of the models are pulling this system north after going over
Cuba. Although this may be bad for the people of South Florida, but if it
is going to go straigt over Cuba then once it hits land in Florida it should
be a relatively weak storm. These models have gradually been going more
West with invest 92, but the stalled front should move through and prevent
the gulf states of an impact from this storm. Untill we can figure out where
the surface center of circulation is it will be really hard to tell where this
storm will make landfall. The hurricane hunter did find a strong circulation,
but it was at mid levels and did not extend down to the surface. Right now
the pressure is at 1010, and the winds are at 30 mph. I too suspect it to
become a tropical depression by this evening and then quickly turning into
Tropical storm Fay. Which will likely make landfall in South Florida and provide
benificial rainfall for parts of Georgia and South Carolina. However dont just
go with my word because there are plenty of other options for this storm,
No model is showing it going out to sea. It will hit land in the US somewhere
whether it is a tropical wave, or a hurricane.

And yesterday I reported invest 93 gone, well it cant make up its mind. Today
it has picked up a little in convection, but the development of this system will be
slow. I do not expect this storm to develop into anything. The NHC is giving this a
small chance for development.