Ike

[weatherbud]

They are starting to curve Ike north as it gets closer to the Texas coast. This tells us the ridge over the NE Gulf will steer the system NW at first and the ridge behind it will not be as strong. Hurricanes, and low pressures systems like to find a weakness in a ridge/HIGH pressure and follow the path of least resistance. It's like the two highs, one over SE Texas and the other over NE Gulf, are mountains. The Valley is in between and that spot right now is the Central and North Gulf Coast.

The update doesn't seem different to the last one...
!

[weatherbud]

Hurricane Ike gets stronger, Corpus Christi-Galveston will have chances to get hit!

Hurricane IKE is now in the open Gulf of Mexico and should start to move up the Hurricane scale. These things are not always a given and this is why we still do have a mystery to tracking hurricanes and how strong they will get. The intensity models still do drag behind the tracking part of the models as far as accuracy. So lets look where it is and what lies ahead for IKE and the Texas Coast.



The models show that the GFS is the Lower end of the track with the center going over the Corpus Christi Metro Area. Most of the models are clustered in the "FREEPORT TO ROCKPORT AREA". That includes the GFDL-NHC-UKMET-BAMM-HWRF-NGFDL models. The northern most model is the NOGAPS taking IKE over the Houston Metro Area. No doubt that the new model data from the Gulf Stream Research Jet helped in getting the track in better agreement.

So the question is does IKE make a turn further up the coast ? The models think it will not at this point but looking over the track record of Gustav and Hanna they do still have a 150-225 mile error this far out from the landfall. My gut feeling is to wait one more day before making the final call. The call for me right now is ROCKPORT TO GALVESTON FOR LANDFALL. The eye would cross over PALACIOS in the wee hours of Saturday morning. Due to the coast curving to the Northeast and the entry of IKE any change now can mean a 100 mile change up or down the coast.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD BEND IKE WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM....

[SMOKE]

Well as IKE track westward ... we'll see if the intensification everyone was looking for comes about. Will wind shear prevent it from strenghthening signifcantly? We know the GoM temps are 'conducive' ......

[Frozen_Signal]

ike already causing gas/oil to rise.....bro in law called me just a few minutes ago and said while there were a few places that still had gas @ 3.57 or so.....about 4 or 5 already boosted their prices to over $4/gal.....if ya see gas still around 3.60 or so.....better fill up now!! lol

[Frozen_Signal]

welcome smoke.....hope you like it here....and youre right about the SSTs ...i think the wind shear is preventing ikey form bombing ti a cat 5 very quickly.....IMO..

again welcome smoke....

[SMOKE]

Thanks for the welcome ... I guess, it shouldn't surprise that gas prices bump for every storm that threatens, regardless of it's impact.

[Miss Bobbie]

Hi, Smoke! Welcome to the funny farm -- er, Weather Vane.

Gas here in NC went up 14 cents a gallon while I was at work today. Ike is doing this??

The office girl said that Ike will hit around high tide -- is that right?
She said it was the highest tide this year -- is that right?
Is there any hope for coastal Texas???

I kept hearing Houston mentioned with Ike, and finally looked at an atlas... Houston is a whole lot closer to the coast than what I thought it was. This storm could get really ugly!

[Miss Bobbie]

Is there anything left of Galveston?

[herasday]

Originally Posted by Miss Bobbie

Is there anything left of Galveston?

I found this.
Aftermath worse than storm on battered Galveston Island

It doesn't sound good, Miss Bobbie. "increasingly fetid" is how they described Galveston Island where an estimated 2000 people defied the evacuation order and stayed. The don't have toilets or drinking water and one person said the aftermath is worse than the storm was. Some people found dead, but who knows how many won't BE found at all. Foolish to stay. Foolish to live there IMHO, but I suppose if you grew up in a place and had your home there it might be hard to leave.

Samiam, over on the Green Thumb Club did evacuate, from a Houston suburb, I think.

There is a post over there where an email from her is posted from her refuge in LA. Even the people who evacuated are not having much fun as many went north into east tx or into LA and the storm went there with high wind and rain, too, knocking out power and communications. At least they didn't have to be worried about being swept out to sea or drowned in their house, though.

[Miss Bobbie]

Doggone! The link was a "File Not Found." I found other sources, though, and will check into them later.

People staying in Galveston?! Criminy! -- did the devil have hold of their brains? I watched the TV coverage of Ike, and heard mostly about Houston. It's almost more than a heart can bear. And in a few minutes I'll have to leave the house and get to work, and discover what's become of the price of gas.

Thanks, Dee!