 Update | |
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 18, 2008
the center of Fay has moved into the Florida Straits. Satelliteimagery and radar data show strong convective banding over theeastern side of the storm...but little activity in the westernsemicircle. This asymmetry is likely due to westerly verticalshear and dry air entrainment. An Air Force Reserve hurricanehunter aircraft measured 850 mb flight-level winds of 61 kt...withreliable-looking SFMR winds of 45-50 kt. Based on this andsimilar Doppler radar winds...the initial intensity is increased to50 kt. The latest minimum pressure reported by the hurricanehunter is 1003 mb.
Fay has been moving in fits and starts for the past couple ofdays...with the center moving faster toward the north-northwestduring the past 6 hr. The initial motion is 335/11. Fay isentering a break in the subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf ofMexico and Florida caused by a mid/upper-level trough movingthrough the southeastern United States. Beyond 36-48 hr...thetrough is forecast to lift out...with a mid/upper-level ridgebuilding over the eastern United States ahead of a second troughover the western Gulf Coast states. Most of the track guidanceresponds to this evolution by forecasting Fay to move generallynorthward near or over the Florida Peninsula and into the easternUnited States. However...the GFS and ECMWF both forecast Fay toturn northeastward into the Atlantic and stall by 120 hr...whilethe NOGAPS continues to call for a more westerly motion toward theFlorida Panhandle. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center notedthat the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are not in good agreement with theoperational runs...so these outliers are ignored for the moment. The new forecast track will follow the northward scenario...lyingjust a little to the east of the consensus models and the center ofthe guidance envelope. The track brings the center over thesouthwestern coast of Florida in a little over 24 hr.
Fay is in a moderate southwesterly vertical shear environment...andthe upper-level winds will likely remain less than ideal for thenext 24-48 hr. This...combined with the dry air and the currentstructure...will likely prevent rapid intensification. However...the guidance shows gradual strengthening...with the GFDL and HWRFmodels making Fay a hurricane before landfall. Thus...theintensity forecast will follow suit. After landfall...Fay shouldslowly weaken and become a remnant low by 120 hr. This intensityforecast is low confidence...and there is a distinct chance Faymight not reach hurricane strength before landfall...especially ifit moves to the right of the forecast track.
It should be noted that...similar to Charley in 2004...smalldeviations from the forecast track could make large differences inwhen and where the center of Fay makes landfall.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/1500z 23.6n 81.5w 50 kt 12hr VT 19/0000z 24.6n 81.8w 55 kt 24hr VT 19/1200z 26.2n 82.1w 65 kt 36hr VT 20/0000z 27.8n 82.0w 50 kt...inland 48hr VT 20/1200z 29.3n 81.8w 40 kt...inland 72hr VT 21/1200z 31.5n 81.5w 35 kt...inland 96hr VT 22/1200z 33.6n 81.5w 25 kt...inland120hr VT 23/1200z 35.5n 82.5w 20 kt...inland remnant low
$$forecaster Beven
I think that this storm will hit South of where it is forecasted.
Around the Everglades city area. It took a mean quick turn right
over Cuba, and now it has a more northerly track which should quickly
turn to a NNE track, bringing it to a more southernly landfall then expected.
Everyone in the South Florida area needs to expect a strong storm surge.
(especialy if there is rapid intensification) and very high rainfall amounts
anywhere from 8 to 15 inches (more locally)
My prayers are with you.
__________________
meteorologist... in the making. | 
Linear Mode
