Bertha

[Frozen_Signal]

[Jimrin1967]

Yeah. I was concerned yesterday about a trough digging in and recurving the storm. But now it looks like by the time the storm gets to the east coast, the trough has lifted out and there is some ridging. Its still a long way off but I can definitely see this hitting the southeast coast. And it is definitely a necessary evil at this point.

[Frozen_Signal]

took the words outta my fingers on that one....

[Frozen_Signal]

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
PROJECTED PATH. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS...BUT THE SSTS WILL BE INCREASING BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE PER
DAY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT PROJECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE
THEREAFTER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH SHOWED BERTHA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT

3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5


IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVER POSE A THREAT

duh!! lol


TO ANY LAND AREAS.

[Jimrin1967]

Latest GFS and ECMWF recurves the storm before it reaches land.

[Jimrin1967]

Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to recurve Bertha well east of the US as a cold front moves through in the day 7-8 time frame. I suppose it could cut undernearth and hit somewhere between the Florida peninsula and the Carolinas, but this does not appear to be a likely scenario. It is unusual to have a long-track storm like this in July and while a track into the Carolinas before recurving is a climatologically common track, given that it is a long track storm and farther north than climatology I am inclined to believe the models at this point. I would not be surprised if it missed the Antilles to the north as well. Still a lot can happen but those are my initial thoughts.

[Frozen_Signal]

your 1st assumption was the correct one...although alot of time for something else to happen....

[Jimrin1967]

Originally Posted by Frozen_Signal

your 1st assumption was the correct one...although alot of time for something else to happen....

The cliche usually ends up being right. But I have learned never to close the door completely on tropical systems this far out. They are the rogues in an inexact science. But right now I'd give a less than 10% chance of US landfall

[toast]

Dang, Jim no good news? We need rain.

[Jimrin1967]

Originally Posted by toast

Dang, Jim no good news? We need rain.

Dust in the wind!!! Wow. Sorry bro I don't see you getting much out of this tropical system. Could become a cat 2 or 3 and bring lots of rain to the fishies.