93l

[winter123]

Just saying, looks good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[winter123]

"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT."


Odd... it looks like there is an upper level high over the entire system to me.

Thoughts??

[CaribWx]

QUOTE (winter123 @ Nov 10 2007, 03:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT."


Odd... it looks like there is an upper level high over the entire system to me.

Thoughts??[/b]

I can't believe it's not Invest 93L yet. I've been talking about this feature with my clients since yesterday morning. Only savig grace it I think it'll make landfall along CostaRica-Nicaragua border early Tue13. If LO lies sufficiently offshore (which I think it may) it does have a narrow window of opportunity to develop. But, given the short time before landfall, it probably won't be a strong system. Here's an excerpt from our email to clients this morning:

Tropical features:
Weak WAVEs along 65W & 52W, are the W & E boundaries of squalls (squalls lie primarily between the WAVEs). Expectations for squalls unchanged from previous forecasts.

TROF 25N/60W...20N.70W...CostaRica, marked by clouds & showers & squalls. Strongest squalls lie in Caribbean from just S of Haiti & Jamaica to Colombia & entire SW Caribbean, except not much activity along Nicaragua. UofWisc satellite analysis places surface LO 10N/77W (just N of Colombia-Panama border). Shear is only about 10k. Spin in the clouds is very broad, with no focal point. Upper-level outflow is very good, especially to the N & NE, along TROF. Warning signs of Tropical LO formation are squalls that are abundant, focused, and persistent at the focal point. While squalls are abundant, they are not focused...yet.

If this feature was expected to linger thru next week over waters of SW Caribbean, I would be very concerned about Tropical LO development. However, models are unanimous that LO makes landfall near CostaRica-Nicaragua border about early Tue13...most likely providing insufficient time for development of a significant Tropical LO.

[winter123]

QUOTE (CaribWx @ Nov 10 2007, 06:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If this feature was expected to linger thru next week over waters of SW Caribbean, I would be very concerned about Tropical LO development. However, models are unanimous that LO makes landfall near CostaRica-Nicaragua border about early Tue13...most likely providing insufficient time for development of a significant Tropical LO.[/b]

But... there's only about 100 miles of land to cross... shouldnt we be concerned about EPAC development?

Isn't the EPAC season pretty much over now? They haven't had a storm there in quite a while now.

[winter123]

Yeah... it appears this is opening to a wave anyways. NEXT! ...year

[wx4caster88]

There is still some convection festering in the southern Caribbean. I doubt it will turn into anything, but for the past several weeks, its been the only area of note in the Atlantic that has maintained some form of convective activity.

[winter123]

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