2008

I have a bad feeling that 08 will be as bad as 07 if we get another nino year. Just a feeling.

[BigNeerav]

QUOTE (Dustin @ Dec 20 2007, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have a bad feeling that 08 will be as bad as 07 if we get another nino year. Just a feeling.[/b]

I am forecasting the demise of La Nina by sometime in late March, with neutral conditions from the rest of March thereafter through late May or early June before we see a weak El Nino by the middle of the summer (late July), and a moderate El Nino by the peak of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season (around mid-September). Overall, I think that conditions should be much more favorable in the Atlantic this season that the last two seasons, as the winds would be favorable for tropical development in terms of both the lack of shear in the Atlantic basin and the steering winds, more so as we get into the heart of the Cape Verde season.

I agree but I am afraid if we go into a el nino pattern it will be like 06 when we had few storms because of strong shear and the bermuda high will most likely be weaker this year.

[NDG]

I don't see El Nino to come as strong as it did in the summer of '06 after a very weak La Nina winter, this La Nina is much stronger than the winter of '05/'06, so I see a continuing La Nina through spring to a neutral ENSO by the summer, maybe a very weak El Nino by late Fall.

Right but do you think the Bermuda ridge will now be to weak? That's one of my main worries.

[NDG]

QUOTE (Dustin @ Dec 22 2007, 01:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Right but do you think the Bermuda ridge will now be to weak? That's one of my main worries.[/b]

Too early to tell.

[BigNeerav]

QUOTE (NDG @ Dec 21 2007, 08:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't see El Nino to come as strong as it did in the summer of '06 after a very weak La Nina winter, this La Nina is much stronger than the winter of '05/'06, so I see a continuing La Nina through spring to a neutral ENSO by the summer, maybe a very weak El Nino by late Fall.[/b]

NDG, we are not in a weak La Nina, but a moderate La Nina, maybe a moderate to strong La Nina, and should last through March. I stand by my forecast that I made originally.

[NDG]

QUOTE (BigNeerav @ Dec 23 2007, 06:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

NDG, we are not in a weak La Nina, but a moderate La Nina, maybe a moderate to strong La Nina, and should last through March. I stand by my forecast that I made originally.[/b]

Please re-read my post, I was talking about the winter of '05-'06, when we had a weak La Nina followed by a weak El Nino by the end of summer '06.
What I mean is that since we have a much stronger La Nina this year, I do not see a weak El Nino by summer of '08, may not be until '09.

[BigNeerav]

QUOTE (NDG @ Dec 23 2007, 09:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please re-read my post, I was talking about the winter of '05-'06, when we had a weak La Nina followed by a weak El Nino by the end of summer '06.
What I mean is that since we have a much stronger La Nina this year, I do not see a weak El Nino by summer of '08, may not be until '09.[/b]

Ah I see. A much stronger La Nina, compared to that period, yes, even though it is moderate-to-strong right now. I don't think we will not see a weak El Nino by '09, as I think it should develop MUCH earlier than that. I stand by the forecast that I made in response to Dustin's original post, but will change it as more information becomes available on the status of ENSO.