Auroras

Hey guys when is the next good Aurora show up north?

I was curious with this...as I would like to see these sometime when I do go up north. Also how common is it?

[Tyler]

they can only predict arouras 1-3 days ahead, and here at 41 degrees north have only heard of them hear once two years ago in november, I always am hoping to see them though.

When you talk about like the northern continetal US like minnesota and north dakota, it happens frequently like maybe once or twice every two months in the fall, my grand parents live near brainerd MN and they say that they are around quite a bit.

Hope to see some this year!

Clear Skies

[aslkahuna]

Go to Fairbanks AK.

[Waveform]

The farther North you get, the better chance of seeing a display.

I haven't see much here in the last several months.

Aslkahuna has the ideal place, a front row seat.

As tyler eluded to you can get a 2 or 3 day warning of a goemagnetic storm.

For the big picture right now, we are at the solar eleven year cycle minimum. However, some of the acitivity has pointed to a very active cycle in the future. Perhaps one of the most active in recent times. I sort of suspect that when the upswing to maximum starts even the people in the mid South and perhaps occasionally far South may get a few displays.
This may not be for a couple of years yet. But then again these things tend to be a bit unpredictable. You just never know when you might see one.

I guess there was a nice display Sept. 1st in the Northern regions.

I was out looking a the sun a while ago with the 10" scope and only noticed three quite small sunspots. Not really much to discuss.

http://spaceweather.com is a good site to check conditions.

Another excellent site which contains a lot of information and detail is;

http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/geomag/index_e.php

Two interesing links on this site are, Geomagnetic forecasts & review, and Space Weather.

So, don't despair, I have no doubt at all you will get to see the Northern lights, and it may not be too far off.

[BigNeerav]

So far so good.......I do check spaceweather regularly, and do keep an eye on it in the event that a good hole in the corona does form, which will lead to a good solar ejection from the sun.......preferably an X-class solar event.

[Waveform]

Yes, good idea. If you have an interest in these sort of events it is best to keep checking. Sometimes these things can just about pop up out of newhere.
Not totally sure, but I think you can get email alerts sent from a couple of these type sites advising on geomagnetic storm alerts, meteor showers and general astronomical things of interest.

[aslkahuna]

X-class events are Solar Flares and have little to do with coronal holes which are a different thing. In fact, we have been having a coronal hole disturbance in progress the past couple of days which could have resulted in aurbo in ND and MN. As far sa the probability of an X-class event with an Earth directed CME, that will be very small for at least the next year or more as we are close to Solar Min now.

Steve

[BigNeerav]

X-class events are Solar Flares and have little to do with coronal holes which are a different thing. In fact, we have been having a coronal hole disturbance in progress the past couple of days which could have resulted in aurbo in ND and MN. As far sa the probability of an X-class event with an Earth directed CME, that will be very small for at least the next year or more as we are close to Solar Min now.

Steve[/b]

Uh.......I am no expert in space weather, but we have seen pretty decent holes in the corona eject really nasty flares in the past.......the X28 and other nasty ones in 2004 were good examples that I can remember when it happened. And those were pretty good holes.

Then again, it is better if we have someone who is an expert on space weather to chime in.

[aslkahuna]

The X-28 (actually now upgraded to X44) event was a Class 4B Solar Flare (the largest opitcal class) which was also visible in white light. I observed that flare for over 2 hours after catching it at maximum. Large flares result form the explosive reconnection of magentic field lines in the closed loop field of an active region. The complexities of the field, turbulence withing the region, magnetic shear and rotation within the group (the region that caused the X44 was a reversed polarity rotating group with intense magnetic shear along the neutral line). Coronal holes are the result of open magnetic fields with divergent field lines which result in the acceleration of the Solar Wind. It's this high speed Solar Wind that results in the Gemag activity from coronal holes. Extreme Gemag events resulting from flare activity result from Coronal Mass Ejections where the explosive reconnection of the closed loop lines accelerates a shock wave through the corona which blasts a cloud of plasma into Space at avery high speed. That, in simple terms, is how this all works. While not an expert, I have 8 years of operational Space Weather forecasting experience and have been interested in Solar activity and have read up on it since 1956.

Steve

[BigNeerav]

Well, you know what, Steve, I am glad we did not get a direct hit form the X28. Yes, the auroras would be pretty, but the effects on the electrical systems on a global scale would be disasterous. Thankfully, it is quiet now, but we are slowly marching towards the peak of the sun cycle, so we should be ready when it arrives.

EDIT: Thanks for that lesson on flares and coronal holes. Now I know.