Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Severe Weather

[liveweatherman]

Mid Atlantic Forecast Map for Tuesday:



Tuesday's Severe Weather.....Target Mid Atlantic!
An in-depth analysis by Promet Chris Sowers:
Typically the Mid Atlantic has seen its fair share of severe weather by the middle of June. But this year has been unusual. Unusual in the fact that were on pace to set a record for the most tornadoes ever across the United States and that the Mid Atlantic has been relatively quiet. With the exception of a severe weather day here and there the Mid Atlantic for the most part has gotten away pretty much "scott-free". The violent weather that has caused a record number of fatalities so far has stayed west across the Mississippi River Valley and the Central Plains.

Monday, June 16th promises to be a little bit different. A SLIGHT RISK for severe weather has already been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the I-95 corridor from Boston to just north of Richmond including New Haven, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington DC. continue



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WV INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW
ENGLAND...
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD/ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THE DAY...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING
CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON.
WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN....SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK EVOLUTION INTO LINEAR MULTICELL CLUSTERS OWING TO
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL/MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW. AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL FAVOR FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES WITH
EFFECTIVE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS QUASI-LINEAR MCS
EXPANSION/MATURATION SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS STILL EXIST REGARDING THE
LOCATION/EXTENT OF EARLY DAY TSTMS AND DENSER CLOUD COVER...STRONG
KINEMATICS/COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALOFT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL
FOR BROAD CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL MODERATE SEVERE RISK.

[liveweatherman]

Today's Forecast On Northeast


Here's an in-depth analysis by Mike Defino on Today's Thunderstorms:
An upper level low will hang around to our north for the next few days keeping things unsettled.The thunderstorms that form today will not be anything to worry about with the threat of a few isolated thunderstorms. I expect these storms to start popping up between 1-3pm and continue to 5-6pm. The threat will be for the eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Reasoning is we will see a vort lobe push thru around 18-20z increasing uplift. Help from the left front quad of the jet aloft will increase forcing for the development of a few storms. read more

[liveweatherman]

Forecast Map ON Northeast


Forecast Map On Mid-Atlantic


Today's showers and Possible Thunderstorm
-Mike Defino

Looks like energy will be a little bit stronger but the instability will be very weak. Lets break it down with the WESTERN Mid-Atlantic region and the EASTERN Mid-Atlantic region.

Western Mid-Atlantic Region
Chance for showers is higher in this region but once again instability will be very weak. Interesting feature in the Pittsburgh forecast soundings is that they are expected to have around 400j/kg of CAPE.

Eastern Mid-Atlantic Region
Thunderstorm threat is low with lack of instibality. A few features on the latest NAM will keep the threat for a few pop up storms alive with the greatest chance happening from Northern VA/MD/DC/DE/S NJ/SE PA...due to a little bit of forcing. read more

[liveweatherman]

Weather Forecast Maps On Saturday:




Weekend Outlook Northeast and Mid Atlantic

Here's a quick sneak peek at the weather for this upcoming weekend

THE BIG PICTURE
A rather large trough for this time of the year will set up shop across the Northeast and the Mid Atlantic States. This will keep things rather unsettled from time to time because the air aloft associated with this feature is very chilly. This will help to create instability. At the same time a rather large ridge will develop across the mid section of the country into the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will soar across the southwest underneath it with the 90's reaching as far north as Denver. Another trough keeps the Pacific Northwest chilly with clouds and showers. read more

[liveweatherman]

Today's Forecast Map:


Latest Doppler Radar: Mid-Atlantic
Expiration: 700 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS RIVERS. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

VIEW SUNDAY FORECAST MAP: SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 351 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008
Expiration: 600 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE HAVE THAT DAY. IT IS ONE OF
THOSE SCENARIOS THAT THE MORE SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS, THE GREATER
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE AIR MASS BY SUNDAY WILL BE HUMID,
EVEN WITHOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.





DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MT...

...NORTHEAST STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION...
UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
SUNDAY. WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...POCKETS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN UPSWING LIKELY IN TSTM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MODERATE/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE HAIL.

[liveweatherman]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 352 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008
Expiration: 600 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
THIS OCCURRING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NEW JERSEY. EVEN WITHOUT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 328 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008
Expiration: 800 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TODAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...SPARKING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CAUSE URBAN FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS ON SUNDAY.

NJZ002>006-011-NYZ069>071-231530-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0002.080623T1600Z-080624T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
327 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...ESSEX...HUDSON...PASSAIC AND
UNION...AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER.

* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE IN A SHORT TIME.

* RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE URBAN FLASH FLOODING IN THE
WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL YESTERDAY.

[liveweatherman]

Best potential for severe thunderstorms appears to be on Saturday..

Weather Forecast Maps for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sat:

MID_ATLANTIC


NORTHEAST

[liveweatherman]

VIEW: Weather Forecast Maps on Northeast

Best potential for severe thunderstorms appears to be on Saturday..

Weather Forecast Maps for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sat:

MID_ATLANTIC


NORTHEAST