This contest will run in two segments for a total of 90 days. Segment 1 will start on November 13, 2007 and end on December 14, 2007. Segment 2 will start on January 3, 2008 and end on February 29, 2008. (Note that this is just one contest; it's split up so that it won't interfere with Christmas time.) The first entry will be due on November 12 for November 13.
The rules are simple. Each day that the HPC is predicting at least a 40% (moderate) chance of 4" of snow anywhere in the eastern or central US (east of a line down the western borders of ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, and TX), a VB day will be called. I will post a thread on theweathervane each morning, sometime between 12z and 15z, to let everyone know whether the next day will be a called VB day or not. (You can participate on a non-VB day if you wish, perhaps if you see a location that is going to be very cold and windy and you think you can get a lot of points for that.) You will then pick one location (from the available choices on the city list; the link to that is at the bottom of this page) that you think will see the best combination of heavy snow, high winds, and cold temperatures. Entries will be due by 05z (Midnight EST, 11PM CST) each day. On Monday, you will make a prediction for Tuesday, and so on. You will get points based on the following formula:
Snow (in tenths of inches) + Heating Degree Days + Highest Sustained Wind Speed
For example, if your location received 4.3 inches of snow, had a high of 30°F and a low of 20°F (40 heating degree days), and a highest sustained wind speed of 33 mph, your score for the day would be 43+40+33=116. All data will be obtained from official NWS climate reports, and the time frame will be midnight to midnight local time.
The winner will be the person with the highest average points per day. You only have to participate in at least 50% of called VB days to be eligible to win the contest. Therefore, it is to your advantage to participate on days when significant snow is in the forecast, and to skip days when only light snow is in the forecast. If there is a tie for the win at the end of the contest, the contest will be extended one or more days for only the people involved in the tie until the tie is broken.
Click here for a map and list of the cities you can choose from. I will obtain official data from NWS climate reports, so you can only choose from the cities for which the NWS issues those reports. In the event that you choose a location that has missing data for that day, I will look at data from surrounding locations as well as spotter reports (public information statements) and make my best guess as to what the actual data would have been for the location you chose. If your location had missing data, you have the right to question my estimate if you feel it is incorrect and if you have evidence to back up your claim. Members of the theweathervane staff will look into it and may change your score accordingly, if we agree with your claim.
This contest is just for fun and bragging rights.
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