Dean do you plan to go chasing today, bud? I would, as it looks like it may have an early onset tornado events, before the storms merge.
Quote:
* DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK*
* NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
* 1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006
*
* VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
*
* ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
* INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
*
* HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE
* ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATER TODAY.* AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
* ACROSS ID/MT IT SHOULD FORCE A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER UT NEWD
* INTO SD BY 00Z...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AN ELONGATED ZONE
* OF TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO ERN
* ND/NWRN MN.* THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
* EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD.
*
* LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING
* EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE ERN
* DAKOTAS/MN AS LLJ FEEDS ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.* ALTHOUGH THIS
* ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...IT APPEARS
* STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER
* HEATS ALONG WIND SHIFT.* FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
* MAINTAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
* FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 21Z...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
* ADDED ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH
* STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IT APPEARS SUPERCELL
* STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
* CONVECTIVE CYCLE.* THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONVECT QUICKLY AND
* EXPAND LINEARLY NEWD* FROM CO INTO MN BY 00Z.* LATEST FORECAST
* SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXIST AHEAD OF
* WEAK SFC LOW FROM ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN BETWEEN 21Z-03Z.* THIS SFC
* FEATURE APPEARS CORRELATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD
* RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES BEFORE STORM MERGERS AND MULTI-CELL
* CLUSTERS BECOME DOMINATE.* OTHERWISE...SUFFICIENT
* MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LINGER WITHIN POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS
* THE NRN PLAINS FOR AN ELEVATED ANA-TYPE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO DEVELOP
* ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/ND LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY MAIN
* UPPER TROUGH THAT APPROACHES AFTER DARK.* LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
* PRIMARY SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION.
*
* ...ELSEWHERE...
*
* STATIONARY...DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE FROM GA...WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF
* STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL FOCUS CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY.* VERY
* MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY ENHANCE LOCAL WET
* MICROBURSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PROVE TOO
* DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE PERIOD.[/b]
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